Why pharmaceutical manufacturing strategy should look ahead to patent expiry

7 min read

In this blog we explore the importance of a proactive commercial manufacturing strategy that looks ahead to API maturity and patent expiry, and how the right partner can support lifecycle management.

For decades, the pharmaceutical industry has measured success by one milestone: bringing the next breakthrough medicine to market.

Innovation has rightly been the industry’s greatest strength. Companies invest billions in discovering new therapies, navigating clinical development and achieving regulatory approval.

But what happens after the commercial launch of a drug?

In today’s pharmaceutical landscape, this conversation is increasingly happening prior to launch rather than after it.

Patent expirations, global pricing reforms, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), increasing cost-of-goods, sustainability targets, geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain disruption are amongst the main factors reshaping how pharmaceutical companies think about manufacturing. Instead, they are now shifting towards a longer-term commercial strategy which considers API maturity much sooner.

Proactive long-term API manufacturing strategy

The industry has become exceptionally good at developing and launching medicines. Yet many manufacturing decisions that determine long-term competitiveness are still made reactively.

Too often, manufacturing becomes a tactical discussion only when margins begin to decline. By then, many of the most valuable opportunities such as second generation process development, new synthetic routes or cost of goods optimisation, have already been lost, as the detailed planning and execution required take too long at this late stage.

Patent expiry should not be the moment companies begin thinking about their long-term manufacturing strategy. It should be the moment they execute a strategy that was tactically developed years earlier.

This strategy should be a living tactical plan, which maximises commercial opportunity throughout the lifecycle of the molecule.

It’s tracked, tested and adjusted at every stage, so there are no surprises when the patent cliff arrives. As a drug approaches loss of exclusivity you are not building a strategy from scratch under pricing pressure, you are executing a plan that has already considered the next steps.

What should proactive lifecycle management involve?

For many organisations, drug substance lifecycle management is viewed as a technical function:

  • Continuous improvement
  • Process optimisation
  • Technology transfer
  • Supply continuity

All of these are important, but they represent only part of the opportunity.

Proactive long-term life cycle management involves:

  • Designing a process not only for regulatory approval, but also for long-term competitiveness
  • Continuously reducing cost of goods throughout the commercial life of the product
  • Building manufacturing resilience years before it becomes critical
  • Developing second-generation APIs before pricing pressure demands them
  • Preparing for loss of exclusivity years before the patent expires
  • Supporting authorised generics or mature products without compromising quality, regulatory continuity or supply

Lifecycle management is no longer about maintaining manufacturing supply. It becomes a strategy for protecting and expanding the lifetime value of every molecule.

Selecting the best CDMO for manufacturing is no longer a tactical decision

Historically, manufacturing was viewed as an execution function; find capacity, transfer technology, deliver commercial supply.

Today, the role is much broader.

Manufacturing decisions influence profitability, market competitiveness, resilience, sustainability and portfolio strategy.

When outsourcing your commercial manufacturing project for drug substance, the choice of partner affects how successfully a product performs throughout its commercial life, not simply how efficiently it is produced.

The differentiator is a partner who understands both the science behind the molecule and the commercial realities that follow.

Every successful medicine eventually reaches the same crossroads:

  • Pricing pressure increases
  • Margins tighten
  • Competition intensifies
  • Loss of exclusivity approaches

For many organisations, the response is the same; transfer manufacturing. Move to a lower-cost region, reduce investment, and accept margin erosion.

However, there is another path:

  • Second-generation process development
  • New synthetic routes
  • Yield improvement
  • Process intensification
  • Automation
  • Manufacturing simplification
  • Sustainability improvements
  • Cost-of-goods optimisation

When planned years before loss of exclusivity, these initiatives can fundamentally reshape the economics of a product.

Rather than asking how to reduce cost after margins disappear, companies can engineer a manufacturing model that allows them to remain competitive long after patent expiry.

Sometimes the best strategy is not moving the molecule. It is improving the molecule.

Innovation and mature (generic) products are not separate businesses

One of the biggest shifts taking place across our industry is recognising that innovative medicines and mature products should not be viewed as separate worlds. They are different stages of the same commercial journey.

Innovator companies are increasingly looking for partners who can support them from development through commercial manufacturing and continue creating value as products mature.

At the same time, generic manufacturers are seeking reliable partners that offer competitive manufacturing, additional capacity, supply-chain resilience, geographic diversification and strategic second-source options.

Rather than treating these as independent opportunities, there is value in connecting them.

A manufacturing strategy that begins with a new chemical entity (NCE) can naturally evolve into lifecycle optimization: second-generation APIs and mature/generic product manufacturing through strategic partnerships.

A different kind of manufacturing partner for mature APIs

At Sterling, this is how we believe the future of pharmaceutical manufacturing should evolve. Our role extends beyond developing and manufacturing APIs.

We help customers think proactively about the entire commercial lifecycle of their molecules. From early development and commercial supply to second-generation process optimisation, supply chain resilience, loss-of-exclusivity planning and mature API manufacturing.

Alongside our established CDMO capabilities for innovative medicines, our CMO offering for mature APIs builds strategic partnerships that provide customers with greater flexibility, competitive manufacturing solutions and long-term supply security.

The future is about supporting both innovation and mature products through a single, integrated manufacturing strategy.The next decade will not be defined by the companies with the largest manufacturing footprint. Nor by those with the lowest manufacturing costs.It will belong to the companies that combine scientific excellence with commercial foresight.

Those that view pharma API lifecycle management not as a tactical function, but as a strategic lever for protecting profitability, strengthening supply chains and extending the commercial life of every molecule.

At Sterling, it’s always about more than molecules. It’s about building a sustainable future.

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Frequently asked questions

Drug substance lifecycle management is the proactive, ongoing management of an active pharmaceutical ingredient’s (API’s) manufacturing strategy from development through launch, commercial maturity and beyond. It brings together process, capacity, supply chain, regulatory and cost considerations to protect quality and supply continuity while maintaining competitiveness as the product and market evolve.

Alongside clinical development, not at patent expiry. Early planning does not require committing to a future manufacturing model; it means understanding and monitoring the variables that will shape it, including cost drivers, process scalability, supply risks, competitive dynamics and regulatory requirements.

As the molecule progresses through development and commercialisation, the strategy should become increasingly defined, so that options are evaluated and implementation can begin well before market or margin pressures make change urgent.

 

Traditionally, a CDMO combines development and manufacturing capabilities, supporting a molecule from process development and scale-up through commercial manufacturing, while a CMO is primarily focused on manufacturing an established process at scale.

Increasingly, however, the distinction is becoming less important. The greater value can come from partners capable of supporting the molecule across multiple stages of its lifecycle – from development and launch through optimization, second-generation processes and mature commercial supply.

There is rarely a single trigger. Pricing pressure, generic competition and approaching loss of exclusivity are common catalysts, but manufacturing strategy should ideally evolve before these pressures become critical.

Early indicators may include uncompetitive cost of goods, changing volume requirements, supply concentration, capacity constraints, new process technologies, regulatory changes or shifts in the competitive landscape. A strong lifecycle strategy identifies these signals early enough to preserve options rather than forcing reactive decisions.

Yes. and there is significant value in viewing them as one continuum. The manufacturing priorities of a molecule change throughout its lifecycle: early stages may prioritise speed, flexibility and technical capability, while mature stages focus on cost, reliability, capacity utilisation and supply-chain resilience.

Connecting these stages allows process knowledge, technology, regulatory understanding and manufacturing experience to remain with the molecule rather than effectively resetting the strategy at each transition. This can create a more resilient and cost-effective manufacturing model across the full product lifecycle.

Effective lifecycle management turns manufacturing from a fixed operational requirement into a strategic lever. By anticipating how cost, capacity, technology, supply risk and market dynamics will change over time, companies can create options before they are needed, whether through process optimization, alternative manufacturing sites, dual sourcing or different manufacturing models.

The objective is not simply to reduce cost. It is to preserve flexibility, protect supply and maintain the economic viability of a product for longer.